Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez has been making noises about “Greater Venezuela,” meaning taking control of the south Caribbean islands of Dutch West Indies, lying near Venezuela’s coast.

What if the nutcase running Venezuela actually made a grab for the islands? Is it farfetched to anticipate? Venezuela’s economy is in the pits, wrecked by Chavez-flavored socialism. Hearken back to 1982, when Argentina was headed by a military junta, controlled by General Leopoldo Galtieri. Faced with economic crisis and growing opposition to the regime, Galtieri launched an invasion of the British territory of the Falkland Islands, about 400 km east of the country. Argentines have long considered the Falklands actually to be Argentine territory, las islas Malvinas, and Galtieri played on this sentiment in invading.

Could something like that be running through Chavez’s head? Like Britain of today, but unlike Britain of 1982, Holland has practically no power-projection capability. There is a modest Dutch military force stationed in the Dutch West Indies, but it would quickly be outmatched by Venezuela’s military.

In 1982, Britain sent a naval task force of two aircraft carriers, submarines and surface combatants to retake the Falklands. Other vessels brought Royal Marines and British Army troops. It was a bitter, hard-fought struggle and the British suffered significant losses, especially from Argie air power. However, the conscripts of the Argentine army in the Falklands were no match in the end for the Brits and the islands were returned to British control.

So what if Chavez moves against the DWI? Strategy Page analyzes the situation.

Just watch this video.

If the rocket doesn’t kill you, a heart attack will - video at Strategy Page.

Strategy Page explains why:

Continuing budget problems have already forced Britians Royal Navy to mothball (put into inactive reserve) 13 of its 44 warships. Now it has been decided to mothball another eight, and to cancel construction of two Type-45 destroyers. That will leave only six new Type-45s, plus two new aircraft carriers being built. The government is also considering closing one of the three bases the navy maintains. The budget problems are caused by cost overruns in procurement problems for new ships (destroyers and nuclear subs) and aircraft (the new Eurofighter), as well as training costs associated with troops being sent to Afghanistan and Iraq. The government believes it can get away with these cuts because, well, the U.S. Navy is more powerful than all the world’s navies combined, and a close ally of Britain. So if there’s an emergency requiring warships…

Whenever people complain that the US defense budget is so large compared to every other nation, I point out that we are paying for their defense as well as our own, and have been for some decades. Probably the only nation under America’s security umbrella that is mostly pulling its own freight is Japan, whose navy long ago surpassed Britain’s in size and power. Australia, too, can likely handle any conventional threat, though the US provides strategic deteerrent for both it and Japan. Britain, almost as steadfast an ally as Australia, has been near-completely dependent on American power since 1940, especially our seapower.

Not going to spend much time on this, but Glenn Reynolds linked to Popular Mechanics’ article about a potential non-nuclear warhead for ICBMs, scenarioed thus:

When the order comes, the sub shoots a 65-ton Trident II ballistic missile into the sky. Within 2 minutes, the missile is traveling at more than 20,000 ft. per second. Up and over the oceans and out of the atmosphere it soars for thousands of miles. At the top of its parabola, hanging in space, the Trident’s four warheads separate and begin their screaming descent down toward the planet. Traveling as fast as 13,000 mph, the warheads are filled with scored tungsten rods with twice the strength of steel. Just above the target, the warheads detonate, showering the area with thousands of rods-each one up to 12 times as destructive as a .50-caliber bullet. Anything within 3000 sq. ft. of this whirling, metallic storm is obliterated.

Actually, the tungsten warheads wouldn’t detonate “just above the target,” but when they hit it. And they would be much more destructive than the strike of a big bullet because their speed, gained in the fall from outer space, would cause them to shatter with high-explosive force.

Thuis isn’t a new idea. It first came up in the 1950s and was originally envisioned as an orbiting platform from which the rods would be decelerated to suborbital speed, calculated to hit the target after a fiercely fast freefall. Wikipedia explains,

The time between deorbiting and impact would only be a few minutes, and depending on the orbits and positions in the orbits, the system would have a world-wide range. There is no requirement to deploy missiles, aircraft or other vehicles. Although the SALT II treaty (1979) prohibited the deployment of orbital weapons of mass destruction, it did not prohibit the deployment of conventional weapons.

The weapon inflicts damage because it moves at orbital velocities, at least 9 kilometres per second. The amount of energy released by the largest version when it hits the ground is roughly comparable to a small nuclear weapon or very large conventional bomb. Smaller weapons can deliver measured amounts of energy as small as a 500 lb conventional bomb.

The “pole” shape is optimal because it enhances reentry and maximises the device’s ability to penetrate hard or buried targets. The larger device is expected to be quite good at penetrating deeply buried bunkers and other command and control targets. The smaller “crowbar” size might be employed for anti-armor, anti-aircraft, anti-satellite and possibly anti-personnel use.

The weapon would be very hard to defend against. It has a very high closing velocity and a small radar cross-section.

No fallout, no hazard from duds and no toxic residue - it’s the environmentally friendly weapon!.

Or, apparently, on the floor of buildings coming under mortar attack.

I had lunch today with a colleague at Dalt’s Grill on White Bridge Road in Nashville. When I returned to my car I found this anonymous note placed under a windshield wiper, written on the torn-off back of an envelope.

(Click on photo for full-size image.) Whether that today is Pearl Harbor Day has anything to do with the writer deciding to leave this note I cannot know. But whomever you are, thank you for being so thoughtful. My family and I much appreciate it!