OOTB cites an NYT piece that uses US Central Command’s own internal assessments that Iraq is sliding closer to chaos.

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Yesterday in OpinionJournal, Iraqi Omar Fadhil wrote, “It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that Iraq might turn into a second Somalia within a year if the situation is allowed to keep descending the way it’s doing now.”

As bad as the military situation is there, what with sectarian militias acting with near impunity, Iraq’s domestic political situation is worse. The central government under PM Maliki is ineffective. Read the whole piece.

Also take a look at James Joyner’s post about former NSA head William Odom arguing in the LAT that “cutting and running is our only option in Iraq and that the only question is how to overcome the political obstacles to doing so.” Among other things, Odom argues,

Fourth, real progress must be made on the Palestinian issue as a foundation for Middle East peace. The invasion of Iraq and the U.S. tilt toward Israel have dangerously reduced Washington’s power to broker peace or to guarantee Israel’s security. We now need Europe’s help. And good relations with Iran would help dramatically.

To which James replies,

The Arab-Israeli issue has absolutely nothing to do with Iraq. If we rounded up every Jew into a concentration camp and gave the Palestinians every square inch of the former Israel, the reduction in sectarian tension in Iraq would be zero. Ditto the Kurd problem. Or the militias. Or al Qaeda.

Indeed.

Update: Ralph Peters:

We have only two rational choices. The first is to read the government the riot act, then give democracy one more year. If Iraq’s leaders refuse to lead honorably and effectively - and get the police and militias under control - we should abandon Iraq (except for Kurdistan) by autumn 2007. The other option is to start preparing the best Iraqi military leaders to take charge of their country.

The alternative to a military government looks like continued mayhem - an endless slaughter of the innocents - along with more American casualties as we protect our enemies.

A grim assessment, but a serious one.

OTOH, at the third annual Coalition Conference in Warsaw, Poland, just completed, Gen. George Casey, senior US commander in Iraq, said,

“We make progress every day all across Iraq. … It’s troubling to see the perceptions people have here because of the violence — now, is there violence? Sure there is, but what people don’t see is the Iraqis are taking little steps forward every day.”

Even so,

The picture of Iraq presented to and by the coalition members over two full days was a complex one – every province was different, and every strategy was tailored to specific conditions on the ground. A security-handover schedule was presented with the caveat “excepting Anbar” — where the fight against the worst of the insurgency and Al Qaeda is still in U.S. hands — and calming troubled Baghdad remains the ultimate barometer of success.

It’s tough for us to get a very clear picture of the situation.