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Updates at end of post.
The total news focus this morning is on the arrest of 21 suspected al-Qaeda-related terrorists for a plot to blow up 10 airliners over the Atlantic Ocean, en route to the US from Britain.
British authorities have admitted its fulfillment was very close; US Secretary of Homeland Defense Michael Chertoff said this morning at a televised press conference that the plot was “well advanced.” Only in the last two weeks did the investigation of the plot conclude that it was directed at the United States, Chertoff said. He also said the plot was “getting very close to the execution phase.”
If the plot had succeeded the death toll might have exceeded that of al Qaeda’s attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. Ten Boeing 747 airliners easily carry far more than the 3,000 people who died in New York, Arlington and Pennsylvania. Airliners.net says that the Boeing 747-300 model has a,
Flightcrew of three, with two pilots and one flight engineer. Typical two class seating arrangement for 470 (50 business class including 28 on the upper deck and 370 economy class).
Adding the three flight crew and 10 attendants per plane gives a total of 483 souls on board per plane when filled. That capacity filled at only 63 percent average per plane means that more than 3,000 people would have died if all 10 planes crashed.
On Dec. 21, 1988, Libyan terrorists used explosives to bring down Pan Am flight 103, flying from London to New York. The aircraft fell onto Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all 259 aboard as well as 11 persons on the ground.
On July 17, 1996, another Boeing 747, TWA flight 800, blew up after taking off for Paris from Kennedy International Airport in New York. All 230 persons aboard died, the aircraft falling, burning, into the water. An investigation concluded an electrical failure caused the crash.
Update: is there a North Korea connection?
Update: The Telegraph writes about, “How terrorists could have made a ‘liquid bomb‘”
Update: Commenter Lost Knight says that the 747-300 is used for cargo flights, having been superceded for passengers by the 747-400. Airliners.net says that the passenger capacity for the dash-400 is 416 plus two flight crew and a flight attendant cohort of (my estimate) 10, making 428 altogether.
If the aircraft targeted by the plotters were modern Boeing 777-300s, the death toll potential looks even worse. It can carry up to 550 passengers (the “all economy high density configuration”). But a “typical” passenger configuration is 386, plus two flight crew and, say, 10 attendants. Even so, 10 “typical” 777s only three-quarters-full carry as many people as died on 9/11, give or take a dozen or so.
That’s why some observers say the “Thwarted plot may have been ‘the Big One’.”
Comments policy
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August 10th, 2006 at 8:09 am
Watch for one day bargain fares in about a month.
August 10th, 2006 at 8:59 am
Not discounting the intended loss of life, but from a strtegic sense the real value of just such an attack is economic and psychological. Either effect could contribute to voter dissatisfaction with the current government. As the 2006 election nears I would expect to see a surge in attempted terrorist action. If the House shifts sufficiently to allow the far-left Democrats to make good on their promise of withdrawal and impeachment it will be salad days for the jihadi in Iraq.
August 10th, 2006 at 10:37 am
A couple of quick correction. No one flies 743s for anything other then cargo over the atlantic. I believe that Northwest flies them over the pacific.
The airlines that were involved where AA, CO, and UA which means probably a Boeing 777 (773ER or 772) rather then a 743. UA also flies some 747-400s.
August 10th, 2006 at 12:20 pm
A little reminder
Don't think we're at war? Not so fast, Nutroots activists. We dodged a giant bullet here and I am truly grateful we're not mourning the loss of another 3000 souls. Some people need to wake up. Last two links via…
August 10th, 2006 at 1:04 pm
Are you sure about the number of planes? I read the linked Telelgraph page and there was no mention of 10 planes (or any number other than cancelations). None of the other articles that they have up mentioned 10 planes either. Does that mean that they’ve backed off from that and it’s back to a 6-plane plot? It’s kind of confusing.
August 10th, 2006 at 1:29 pm
Initial reports always tend to be confused. What I heard this morning on news was 6-10 planes.
August 10th, 2006 at 3:05 pm
[…] rorists could have made a ‘liquid bomb‘” Update: Commenter Lost Knight says that the 747-300 is used f […]
August 10th, 2006 at 3:12 pm
Airline bomb plot’s toll could have exceeded 9/11
The total news focus this morning is on the arrest of 21 suspected al-Qaeda-related terrorists for a plot to blow up 10 airliners over the Atlantic Ocean, en route to the US from Britain. A…
August 10th, 2006 at 3:50 pm
British Muslim Plot Stopped
Ok, let’s see. They wanted to blow up 10 planes going from Britian to the US. Iran may or may not be close to going nuclear, but claims it has an announcement for August 22, and it’s head of state…
August 10th, 2006 at 8:49 pm
Sky Terror in UK: Foiled (This Time)
News Items (Blogs & Opinion below) President Bush said the breakup of the sky terror plot by British security a reminder that the US is still at war with “Islamic fascists”. (American Forces Press Service) 18:15 PDT Two of the…
August 10th, 2006 at 11:08 pm
Anyone want to bet that was only half of the attack. The other half would have been planes leaving the U.S. Too many strange things in the past couple of weeks. Disappearing students, men caught in Ohio (from Dearbornistan) with thousands of dollars, a lot of data on U.S. airfields/flights and they had purchased hundreds of throw away cell phone across the country. Don’t get to relaxed, it ain’t over yet. They’ve only picked up the ones that were identified by the NSA through monitoring communications between ‘terrorists’. Anyone remember something happening in the recent past the limited the effectiveness of the NSA. Seem that some left wing democratic traitors leaked the NSA program to the NYSlimes and it was spread around the world, followed by more traitorous acts by the democrats that has killed the ability to track the millions of dollars required to finance a terrorist operation.
Something keeps popping up that identifies the worst enemies of the people of the United States and it has the same name everytime, Democrats, brain dead, insane democrats.
August 11th, 2006 at 2:46 pm
Harry Reid’s talking point was that this plot is proof that the Iraq war has distracted us from the real war on terror.
Someone needs to tell him that the plot was discovered and foiled.
The real problem is that we’re talking about British citizens here. I think that our tolerance for Muslims in Western countries is going to dissipate rapidly if this sort of thing continues.
It isn’t something I look forward to, because it would mean that a lot of innocent people will suffer, but there were no cases I ever heard of where Japanese-Americans participated in plots like this during WWII.
We’ver learned that detaining people based on race and/or religion is a bad thing, but it’s a relative thin patina over fear. If we start seeing omnicide bombers blowing up malls and theaters here, I wouldn’t want to be a Muslim.
August 12th, 2006 at 1:07 am
I watched the video a few days a go again. Rough. It took me a moment to realize the call wasn’t going to end before the building fell. I considered turning it off before it fell, knowing the sudden silence would signify a death. I know people died, but each one you learn about becomes personal. I’ll never forget 9/11.
August 29th, 2006 at 6:31 pm
We’re at war
L’Occidente è in guerra, una guerra iniziata l’undici settembre di cinque anni fa. È la battaglia tra mondo libero e nichilismo, tra chi difende la vita e chi cerca la morte attraverso il martirio, tra democrazia e fondamentalismo, tra st