"Streets will run with blood" - I don't think so
James Joyner posts about the latest apparent threat from al Qaeda. Citing a story on Drudge:

In the last week before the election, ABCNEWS is holding on a videotaped message from a purported al Qaeda terrorist warning of a new attack on America, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned. The terrorist claims on tape the next attack will dwarf 9/11. "The streets will run with blood," and "America will mourn in silence" because they will be unable to count the number of the dead. Further claims: America has brought this on itself for electing George Bush who has made war on Islam by destroying the Taliban and making war on Al Qaeda.

I didn't see anything about this on ABC News' web site.The tape apparently features and American Muslim named Adam Pearlman, long thought by the FBI to possess deep-insider information about al Qaeda operations.

I will be the last to say that al Qaeda no longer has lethal designs for the attacks inside the United States. But and historical analysis of al Qaeda's threats reveals that it blusters "A" and then does "B". Back in early August, I listed a long series of unfulfilled threats that al Qaeda has made since the 9/11 attacks. My conclusion was that al Qaeda does not threaten attacks that are actually in the works. (Al Qaeda even promised in December 2003 to destroy New York City within 35 days)

Based on this record, I will assay that Pearlman's threat is also empty. Yes, I could be wrong, God forbid, but that's their record. As I wrote almost three months ago, Al Qaeda makes threats all the time, but threats of specific actions, such as nuke New York or poison US water supplies, don't get carried out. Very vague threats - a "bloody war" in Europe - are so vague that any bombing can be seen as fulfillment.

Al Qaeda seems to have two categories of threats:

1. "Hear us roar" threats that are mostly bluster designed to let us and their ideological allies know they are still fighting.

2. Misdirection threats of significant specificity designed to increase the fog of our counter-terrorism measures.

Actual targets - Khobar barracks, African embassies, USS Cole, the 9/11 targets, the Bali disco, Madrid trains - are not pre-threatened . They are simply attacked. So I'm not unduly alarmed by Pearlman's tape. It's what they aren't talking about that worries me.

Update: The WaPo points out that neither the FBI nor the CIA have authenticated the tape.

by Donald Sensing, 10/27/2004 07:56:51 PM. Permalink |