Russian school taken by storm
Several hostages reported dead, including children; hundreds said wounded; running gun battle with terrorists



Several hours ago Russian negotiators and Chechen terrorists holding the school in Beslan, Russia, agreed for ambulances to go to the school to remove about 20 bodies of persons killed in the terrorists' seizure of the school two days ago.

Reports conflict on what happened next, but it seems that some of the hostages tried to escape, perhaps thinking that the terrorists' attention was diverted by the ambulances. Firing began, and some reports say that some terrorists also tried to make a break.

Explosions blew up part of the school. Russian police and soldiers moved in. Heavy and prolonged firing was heard. Some terrorists escaped to a nearby house, where a fierce gunfight ensued. Russian troops were reported to be calling for more ammunition.

Several of the approximately 19 terrorists are reported to have escaped and are making their way across the countryside, hotly pursued by Russian soldiers.

Meanwhile, other troops and police and townspeople began taking children and adults from the school, almost all the children clad only in their underwear. At least 250 hostages may have been wounded or injured.



However, there are possibly hundreds of hostages unaccounted for inside the school campus. Many are said to have died; Interfax news agency reports "dozens" are dead from a collapsed roof (probably caused by explosions).

Analysis

The bad ending to this crisis proves that terrorist events cannot be managed with any degree of precision. So far, there is no report that Russian authorities initiated the battle, on the contrary, it seems clear that they were caught by surprise by whatever the initiating event was. (We can't discount that Russian police or soldiers may have attempted to infiltrate the school by hiding in the ambulances, though.)

The Russian government's failures in counter- and anti-terrorism continues to unimpress. It's obvious that a concerted campaign against Russia has been mounted in the last couple of weeks: bombed airliners, suicide subway bomb, Beslan school.

In any armed hostage situation, law-enforcement personnel, whether police or military, must remain on high readiness at all times. They must always have a plan for the moment in case they need to charge in, and this plan must always be revised to account for changing conditions.

The authorities need always to remember that the hostages are practically never entirely passive. In a mass-hostage situation like the school, the police should have expected that some hostages would attempt to make a break if they got the chance, or even that some of the terrorists might try also.

So the friendly assault forces have to be suited up, armed and immediately ready to go it. My guess is that this was not the case in Beslan, and that during anticipated "lulls" like the ambulance deal, the Russian troops mostly stood down.

Russian President Putin has gone on record promising there would be no assault on the school. Putin is nothing if not devious, but this pledge appears to have been sincere. A report on cable news just now says that the assualt was unplanned and happened spontaneously, meaning there was a "trigger event" that made the on-scene commander think he had to go in, Putin's pledge or no. From all accounts, the trigger event was two explosions inside the school, but why the terrorists set them off is still unknown. Russian authorities are saying that rescued hostages are reporting that at least some of the terrorists had changed into civilian clothes before the explosions, so it seems likely that the terrorists thought they could exfiltrate and escape in the confusion resulting from the explosions.

Once the terrorists started killing hostages, or appearing to do so by setting off bombs, all bets were off and the assault had to be made. Tragically, it appears that the Russian forces were not ready to do so.

But no one should have expected a good ending. The terrorists' demands for the children's release included total independence of Chechnya from Russian rule, which Russia cannot possibly agree to.

Update: As of 9:30 a.m. CDT, 100 bodies are reported to have been found in the school's gymnasium; see the pic above, with its roof blown out.

by Donald Sensing, 9/3/2004 07:04:05 AM. Permalink |