Al Qaeda doesn't threaten what it plans to do
Here are some reports of threats al Qaeda has made that have yet to be fulfilled, and why they make the intelligence about potential attacks in New York even more chilling.

October 2001: The al-Qaeda organisation of Islamic militant Osama Bin Laden has threatened fresh terror attacks against both the United States and the United Kingdom.

October 2001: The Osama bin Laden-led terrorist organisation Al Qaeda has again promised to carry out new acts of terror in the United States and the United Kingdom as revenge for their attacks on Afghanistan.

December 2002: Earlier this week, an al Qaeda statement posted to the Internet threatened a strike to coincide with the end of the Muslim holy season -- which is December 5 and 6.

May 2003: CAIRO, Egypt — An Arabic-language magazine quotes a senior member of Al Qaeda as raising the possibility that the group might poison U.S. water supplies.

May 2003: Al Qaeda threatens Norway. Qatar's Jazeera television aired on Wednesday what it said was an audio tape by top Qaeda official Ayman al-Zawahri urging Muslims to strike the embassies and commercial interests of the United States, Britain, Australia and Norway in their own countries.

June 2003: spokesman for Al Qaeda has threatened that the terrorist organization is planning new attacks against "Americans and Jews." The statement, published June 2 in the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, is the latest in a series of Al Qaeda statements since September 11 threatening attacks against the United States and Jews.

October 2003: OSAMA bin Laden's al-Qaeda terror network is planning a "death blow" against Americans during the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a Saudi magazine reports.

December 2003: “Al Qaeda: We will destroy New York within 35 days. Threat on the Internet. Countdown begins.”

February 2004: Osama bin Laden's righthand man has warned President George W. Bush in an audiotape broadcast to prepare for more attacks on the United States.

In the tape aired on Tuesday by Al Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahri said: "Bush, strengthen your defences and your security measures for the Muslim nation which sent you the legion of New York and Washington has determined to send you legion after legion seeking death and paradise."

The threat was contained in a video clip featured on a web site associated with the fundamentalist terror group. It announced al Qaeda plans to destroy New York in a nuclear blast on February 2.

June 2004: Purported al Qaeda militants in Saudi Arabia warned in a written statement Monday that they plan attacks on U.S. and other Western airlines and other means of transportation.

July 2004: DUBAI (Reuters) - Muslim militants claiming links to al Qaeda vowed in a statement on Wednesday to launch a “bloody war” on Europe after a “truce” offered by Osama bin Laden expired earlier this month.

July 2004: A statement posted on an Islamist website purporting to be from Osama bin Laden`s Al-Qaeda network threatened Italy with a 9/11-style bloodbath if it kept Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in power.

July 2004: A GROUP calling itself al-Qaeda's European branch threatened today to turn Australia into "pools of blood" if it did not withdraw its troops from Iraq, a direct result of the Philippines decision to do so, says Foreign Minister Alexander Downing.

July 2004: DUBAI - A purported Al-Qaeda statement posted on an Islamist website threatened Europe with a "bloody war" following the expiry of a July 15 deadline set by Osama bin Laden for European states to pull troops out of Muslim countries.

July 2004: BAGHDAD - Groups purportedly linked to al Qaeda vowed to attack Japan, Poland and Bulgaria unless they withdrew from Iraq, the latest attempts to rattle the US-led coalition after Manila pulled out its troops under pressure.

July 2004: Groups of Abu Hafs al-Masri, which is close to al-Qaida organization, said yesterday in a statement on a web site for it on the Internet of converting Yemen to a ” third front” in the war against the Americans in the world after Iraq and Afghanistan.

July 2004: AFP - A letter threatening EU institutions in Brussels and The Hague was received at United Nations headquarters in New York a few days ago, Dutch Interior Minister Johan Remkes said.

There seems to be a pattern. Al Qaeda makes threats all the time, but threats of specific actions, such as nuke New York or poison US water supplies, don't get carried out. Very vague threats - a "bloody war" in Europe - are so vague that any bombing can be seen as fulfillment.

Al Qaeda seems to have two categories of threats:

1. "Hear us roar" threats that are mostly bluster designed to let us know they are still fighting.

2. Misdirection threats of significant specificity designed to increase the fog of our counter-terrorism measures.

Actual targets - Khobar barracks, African embassies, USS Cole, the 9/11 targets, the Bali disco, Madrid trains - are not pre-threatened . They are simply attacked.

Regarding the increased alert level for New York and region, I have seen no threats against those kinds of targets publicized by al Qaeda. But its planning and reconnaissance has been going on for four years, even until recent weeks.

Draw your own conclusions about the reality of al Qaeda's intentions.

by Donald Sensing, 8/4/2004 07:55:20 PM. Permalink |