Al Qaeda's desperation
Today's Iraq bombing signals new tactics

Three information tidbits make an interesting confluence this week in light of today's brutal bombing in Iskandariyah, Iraq.

One: President Bush says in Sunday's Meet the Press interview,

... we’re doing a pretty good job of dismantling al-Qaida — better than a pretty good job, a very good job. I keep saying in my speeches, two-thirds of known al-Qaida leaders have been captured or killed, and that's the truth [emphasis added].

Two: A letter apparently written by Jordanian al Qaeda operative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi fell into American hands. The 17-page missive expresses pessimism that al Qaeda's efforts to fight Americans and destabilize Iraq are working.

The memo says extremists are failing to enlist support inside the country, and have been unable to scare the Americans into leaving. It even laments Iraq's lack of mountains in which to take refuge. ... [The writer] claims to be impressed by the Americans' resolve. After significant losses, he writes, "America, however, has no intention of leaving, no matter how many wounded nor how bloody it becomes."

Zarqawi (if it was he writing) also says that Iraqis won't support al Qaeda fighters.

Three: Members of the educated and professional classes in Iraq are being targeted for assassination:

A couple of weeks ago, Dr. Mayah, a 53-year-old political scientist and human rights advocate known in his neighborhood here as "the professor," was driving to work when eight masked gunmen jumped in front of his car. They yanked him into the street, the police said, and shot him nine times in front of his bodyguard and another university lecturer.

In an instant, he became one of hundreds of intellectuals and midlevel administrators who Iraqi officials say have been assassinated since May in a widening campaign against Iraq's professional class.

War, as has been endlessly repeated by commentati (including me), is a contest of wills. But not merely that. It is primarily a contest of power. What Zarqawi's letter shows is that al Qaeda is failing on both counts.

Al Qaeda's leadership, beginning at the top with Osama bin Laden, was convinced that the United States did not have the will to fight. In an interview with bin Laden, conducted by Jamal Isma'il in Afghanistan and broadcast on Middle East television, it is clear that bin Laden's (and hence, all al Qaeda's) operations concept is based on a delusion that he has explained many times: when hurt, the United States always cuts and runs.

We think that the United States is very much weaker than Russia. Based on the reports we received from our brothers who participated in jihad in Somalia, we learned that they saw the weakness, frailty, and cowardice of US troops. Only 80 US troops were killed. Nonetheless, they fled in the heart of darkness, frustrated, after they had caused great commotion about the new world order.

And in an interview between Al-Jazeera television correspondent Tayseer Alouni in October 2001, bin Laden said,

We believe that the defeat of America is possible, with the help of God, and is even easier for us, God permitting, than the defeat of the Soviet Union was before.

Q: How can you explain that?

Bin Laden: We experienced the Americans through our brothers who went into combat against them in Somalia, for example. We found they had no power worthy of mention. There was a huge aura over America -- the United States -- that terrified people even before they entered combat. Our brothers who were here in Afghanistan tested them, and together with some of the mujahedin in Somalia, God granted them victory. America exited dragging its tails in failure, defeat, and ruin, caring for nothing.

America left faster than anyone expected. It forgot all that tremendous media fanfare about the new world order, that it is the master of that order, and that it does whatever it wants. It forgot all of these propositions, gathered up its army, and withdrew in defeat, thanks be to God.

On the matter of national will, Zarqawi's letter seems clearly to indicate that al Qaeda's leadership is recognizing they cannot outlast us.

Neither can they overpower us. The core purpose of military operations is to compel, not persuade, your enemy to conform to your will. Through attrition, maneuver of forces, political processes, psyops and civil affairs, al Qaeda is discovering it is being checked at almost every turn, starting with the fact that 70 percent of its leaders known to America are dead or captured. Their first team is pretty much off the field and the benchers trying to carry on aren't up to the job. They don't have the personal renown of the terrorists who have been killed or captured, and among the societies they most need assistance from, personal reputation is extremely important. But they are virtual unknowns for the most part.

After tacitly admitting that al Qaeda cannot defeat America militarily in Iraq, Zarqawi writes that al Qaeda must turn to terrorism against the Iraqis in order to destabilize the country so much that its return to sovereignty this summer cannot happen effectively.

"So the solution, and only God knows, is that we need to bring the Shia into the battle," the writer of the document said. "It is the only way to prolong the duration of the fight between the infidels and us. If we succeed in dragging them into a sectarian war, this will awaken the sleepy Sunnis who are fearful of destruction and death at the hands" of Shiites. ...

"You noble brothers, leaders of the jihad [meaning other al Qaeda leaders - DS], we do not consider ourselves people who compete against you, nor would we ever aim to achieve glory for ourselves like you did," the writer says. "So if you agree with it, and are convinced of the idea of killing the perverse sects, we stand ready as an army for you to work under your guidance and yield to your command" [emphasis added].

Zarqawi (again, if he is indeed the author) goes on to write that al Qaeda fighters in Iraq must wage war against the Shiite Iraqi majority (i.e, the "perverse sects") and that this war must be well underway before the US returns sovereignty to the country. That way al Qaeda can propagandize that the Americans are responsible for the sectarian violence. "After that, the writer suggests, any attacks on Shiites will be viewed as Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence that will find little support among the people" as a reason to unite against America.

That al Qaeda shows no compunction about killing other Muslims has been self-evident for several years. In fact, I wrote last November that al Qaeda’s primary war is against other Muslims. Their objective seems now to be to engender a civil war inside Iraq, to cause chaos, thus demonstrating American failure there.

Bombings such as today's blast in Iskandariyah, south of Baghdad and the assassination of Iraq's intelligentsia are the opening salvos of this tactic.



The bombing's target was a police station. Iraqi police are a frequent target of al Qaeda; they have killed hundreds since May.

''It was the day for applying for new recruits,'' said policeman Wissam Abdul-Karim, who was thrown to the ground by the blast. ''There were dozens of them waiting outside the police station.''

Iskandariyah is a predominantly Shiite city. Almost immediately, the rumor began spreading locally that the explosion was from an American missile. You can bet that several al Qaeda agents were already nearby when the bomb detonated, each with a coordinated story to begin spreading among shocked witnesses. The result? This:

But many angry townspeople blamed the Americans for the blast, and some claimed that a U.S. air attack was to blame.

''This missile was fired from a U.S. aircraft,'' said Hadi Mohy Ali, 60. ''The Americans want to tear our unity apart.''

This combination of terrorism and low-level psyops is a new twist. Previously, al Qaeda would commit a terrorist act and boast about it, bragging that the Americans were powerless to prevent it. Now they commit the deeds and don't take credit, but with preplanned cunning, immediately begin to plant the belief that America is actually the one committing the deeds.

Expect to see more of this kind of terrorism. I think it will not succeed in accomplishing al Qaeda's objective, but its failure will be sadly bloody.

Update: Army Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, deputy operations director for Combined Joint Task Force 7, also thinks that al Qaeda is "desperate."

The general said the letter-writer's recommendation of instigating sectarian violence in Iraq "is almost a sign of desperation." Most of Iraq's people, he pointed out, reject terrorism and are looking forward to achieving governmental sovereignty on June 30.

Via James Joyner.

Update: The full text of the Zarqawi memo is here.

by Donald Sensing, 2/10/2004 05:27:03 PM. Permalink |