The decline of Europe - more retirees
I am not quite prepared to say that demographics is destiny, but Europe's demographics don't look so good.

One study by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, predicts that the median age in the United States in 2050 will be 35.4, only a very slight increase from what it is now. In Europe, by contrast, it is expected to rise to 52.3 from 37.7.

The likely meaning of this "stunning difference," as the British weekly The Economist called the growing demographic disparity between Europe and the United States, is that American power — economic and military — will continue to grow relative to Europe's, which will also decline in comparison with other parts of the world like China, India and Latin America.

In case you haven't read WOC's post on 12 under-rated global trends, do so. One of the 12 is Europe's looming pension crisis, where we find the following tidbit from the UK Independent:

The implications of ageing on the European social welfare model, where the current generation of working people pay the benefits of the current generation of retirees, have been so widely recognised that there is a danger of "pension fatigue" overtaking electorates. The core problem is that welfare systems that were developed at a time when there were more than four workers for every pensioner cannot function when there are fewer than two. (In the case of Spain and Italy, there will actually be fewer workers than pensioners when the present 20-somethings retire.)

But that's not all. Not only is Europe's population aging, it is growing smaller. Either Europeans need to increase their own birth rate (perhaps, as it has increased in France recently) or they will need to increase immigration. But anti-immigrant sentiment is rising there.

Governments' suggestions to raise the pension-eligibility age are strongly resisted.

"In reality, a legal retirement age of 80 is what we should aim at," Erich Streissler, an Austrian economist, wrote in a newspaper article.

Fat chance. In fact, more than half of men across Europe stop working between age 55-65.

by Donald Sensing, 6/28/2003 09:39:00 PM. Permalink |

Missing soldiers in Iraq found dead
The two soldiers who were apparently abducted Wednesday in Iraq have been found dead. Their names are Sgt. 1st Class Gladimir Philippe, 37, of Linden, N.J., and Pfc. Kevin Ott, 27, of Columbus, Ohio.

Sixty-one US troops have died in Iraq since the end of offensive action was declared on May 1, including 23 deaths by hostile action.


by Donald Sensing, 6/28/2003 08:36:00 AM. Permalink |

Frankenfish glow in the dark
Genetically modified zebra fish glow in the dark, thanks to jellyfish DNA inserted into them by a Taiwanese company.

The fish was unveiled in 2001, but it took another year and a half to develop a technique to render the animal sterile. It cannot cross-breed with natural fish.

TK-1 was developed using the work of HJ Tsai of the National Taiwan University.

Initially, Taikong plans to sell 30,000 glowing fish at US $17 each and then increase production to more than 100,000 in three months.

We should have known that entertainment would be a leading result of DNA engineering.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 08:51:00 PM. Permalink |

French Air Force targets "al Qaeda" helicopter
A Swiss air traffic controller is in deep kimchi for jokingly labeling a French helicopter as "al Qaeda" in the ATC system when it strayed into restricted air space, resulting in the chopper nearly being destroyed by French fighter jets. The incident occurred during the Group of Eight summit earlier this month.

The French military "picked up the label on its own radar and immediately scrambled Mirage fighter jets. Only at the last moment, when they were ready to shoot down the intruder, did the Mirage pilots realise that it was a French transportation helicopter, officials said."

Time to dust off the ol' resume, eh, Henri?

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 08:33:00 PM. Permalink |

Many thanks to donors!
Many thanks to those who have donated through either Amazon or PayPal (see button at left) recently. One kind gentleman read my essay, "The Soil of Arab Terrorism," and dropped $50 into my PayPal acount! Breathtaking!

The difference between the two services is that Amazon keeps a much larger percentage of your donation as a service fee than PayPal, whose service fee is small. But Amazon preserves your anonymity and PayPal does not. If you donate through Amazon, unless you positively assent to Amazon providing me your name and email address, I will see neither. I'll just get an email telling me of the amount. PayPal sends me email stating name, email address and amount.

Maybe someday I'll be like Glenn Reynolds and make enough through donations to go scuba diving in the Caymans!


by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 03:28:00 PM. Permalink |

More on Western Muslims' despair of the Muslim world
American Muslim author denounces extremists

Here is an interesting essay on America-based Muslim web site Submission on how America's political founding exemplifies the real truth of the Quran, and how the Declaration of Independence declares truths that first appeared in the Quran.

I have written before that many Western Muslims seem to be renouncing Muslims in "Muslim countries" as having lost the true Islamic faith. Submission's article says explicitly,

God has given all those so called Muslim countries enough time to apply His book (Quran), but they deserted the Quran, denied the basic life principles to their people, took away the freedom to , think, speak, write, move, work, worship, choose their leaders, make decisions concerning their life and future ...etc , defying God's law. They established governments based on dictatorship, that gave no place to the people to express themselves or run their countries. They gave the wealth of these countries to a few and left the rest of the people starving. They put aside God's Book (Quran) and its laws and made their own man-made laws that is full of contradiction to God's system. Therefore, God is fulfilling His promise in Sura Muhammed. 47:38

".......If you turn away, He (God) will substitute other people in your place, and they will not be like you."

and in 70:40-41.

"I solemnly swear by the Lord of the easts and the wests; we are able... to substitute better people in your place; we can never be defeated."

We as Muslims (Submitters) should be proud of our perfect religion, and should realize that Islam (submission) as a law and a way of life can be seen and practiced in this Country, USA, freely, more than all these so called Muslim Countries. We should be proud and honored that our Quranic principles are being discovered by those who live outside Islam (Submission), because they will realize one day that they are following Islam, and will realize that Islam (Submission) has nothing to do with what is practiced by the so called Muslim countries. They will learn to judge Islam (submission) by what it stands for, not by what these (false) Muslims do.

(Italics original) I recall that many commentators, including myself, have said since Sept. 2001 that if Islam is not a unified block of America haters, then Muslims who live here need to say so. It seems to me that Sayed Abu Mandoor, the author of this piece, is saying so quite clearly. Those of us who have asked for such renunciations are obligated to publicize them when they are made. So I do, and I thank you, Mr. Mandoor.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 02:09:00 PM. Permalink |

Blogger isn't working well
So posts are spotty at best. Anyone else having this problem? Yes, the day approacheth nigh when Blogger and I shall no more together be.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 01:58:00 PM. Permalink |

The Air Force under a magnifying glass
Steven Den Beste posts a detailed email from a retired Air Force officer that takes Steven to task pretty stoutly over some of the things Steven has posted about the service. It's long, detailed and very revealing - but so is Steven's response, which is a rant back at him.

All quite civil, and all a must-read for those interested in military afairs.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 09:48:00 AM. Permalink |

Korean War for America began 53 years ago today.
On June 27, 1950, President Truman ordered the Air Force and Navy into the Korean War following a call from the United Nations Security Council for member nations to help South Korea repel an invasion from the North.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 09:03:00 AM. Permalink |

Bush asks European countries to cut ties to Hamas
President Bush sdaid Europe should cut off all support of Hamas, and "dismissed news of a possible cease-fire agreement involving Hamas and other militants as irrelevant to Middle East peace."

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 08:55:00 AM. Permalink |

The place of the Quran in Islam
An excellent essay on this topic is posted by Muslim blogger Fatimah.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 07:24:00 AM. Permalink |

Something rotten in Seoul
Former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung was awarded the 2000 Nobel Peace Prize in large part because he opened personal reconciliation talks with the North. Now we learn that Kim paid the North Koreans $100 million to take part in the summit.

The historic meeting between Mr Kim and his northern counterpart, Kim Jong-il, in the North Korean capital Pyongyang in June 2000 was the crowning moment of Kim Dae-jung's presidency, with both countries pledging to end 50 years of bitterness and pursue a path to eventual reunification.

But the [South Korean] independent counsel, Song Doo-hwan, after a 70-day investigation, declared yesterday that the Government's payment to impoverished North Korea was "related" to the meeting and had been hidden from public scrutiny.

As others have pointed out, when North Korea finally falls - and it will, we just don't know when - the South's graft and corruption in its dealings with the North will take our breath away.

by Donald Sensing, 6/27/2003 07:20:00 AM. Permalink |

Public-school teachers get prelim OK to pack heat in school
In a town in Utah, public-school teachers have gotten preliminary approval to carry firearms on the job.

Employees must keep the weapon concealed and employees who legally use a concealed weapon on school grounds do so in their individual capacities, not their scope of employment.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 09:03:00 PM. Permalink |

A Muslim Reformation?
As a companion to my earlier post about how some Western Muslims are attempting to define a pluralistic Islam is this extract from a Business Week article:

The roots of Islamic extremism lie not so much in religion but in repressive societies with economies too anemic to provide livelihoods for their fast-growing populations. Despite much talk of reform, most Arab countries remain museums of state capitalism. There's no sign of a leader who could shake things to the core. "Those who expect a new, reformed Islam are asking the wrong questions. We don't have a Luther. We don't have a Calvin," says Tahseen Bashir, a former Egyptian presidential spokesman and diplomat.

Compare this pessimistic attitude of that Middle Eastern Muslim with that of the Western Muslims in the earlier post. I think it's revealing.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 08:00:00 PM. Permalink |

Borders are no obstacles in terror war
Austin Bay has insights into how a major lesson yet to be learned bt "states that aid and abet terrorists" is that the war on terror "are erasing their own borders." And the recent attack on Iraqi terrorists across the Iraq-Syria border is the latest illustration. Read the whole thing.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 05:35:00 PM. Permalink |

Book sales update
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix remains the number one fiction seller (as if . . .), selling 3,878,566 since its opening day, when it sold five million. That pretty much exhausts the first shipment to retailers of 8.5 million copies.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton's Living History remains the number one selling book in the non-fiction category (I refrain from the obvious), having sold 168,676 its second week (it opened June 9) - down more than 60 percent from its opening week. This according to Drudge (no link therefrom).

Living History sold 438,701 copies during its first full week of sales, which Nielsen's Bookscan service says represents scanned, purchased, sold and bagged or shipped copies at POS or online retailers. My guess is that since Bookscan is not yet fully integrated electronically, some sales are unreported, but there is no way of knowing how many.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 04:54:00 PM. Permalink |

New Iraqi blogger added
I have added to my blogroll an Iraqi blogger, G. in Baghdad. Very interesting. hat tip: Jeff Jarvis.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 07:24:00 AM. Permalink |

More on Islam's internal conflicts
This about the internal conflict of ideas, not bullets. A Muslim "reformist Muslim scholar" and Goettingen University professor named Bassam Tibi has published papers that

. . . labeled well-meaning Christians "inexcusably naive" in their dealings with their Islamic interlocutors.

He also accused fellow Muslims as being "dishonest to the highest degree" in claiming that Sept. 11 had nothing to do with Islam. According to Tibi, the current Christian-Islamic dialogue is based on deception, merely producing wishful thinking in the West.

Not surprisingly, other Islamic scholars in the West are vigorously challenging Tibi. They particularly dislike his claim that in the eyes of most Muslims the "Islamization of the world" is still their religion's goal. Muslims strive for the expansion of the "Dhar al-Islam" (the House of Islam) to the entire world, he says, and in this "house" Christians and Jews will live as "dhimmi" - tolerated "people of the Book," but also discriminated against.

Even Tibi's challengers agree that Islam must become pluralistic and tolerant. It's a good article, but you will notice that none of the Muslim scholars cited live in Arab countries, though some hail from them. Hat tip: Chris Noble, who also links to the Time story on why and how Muslims are now seen by American Christian evangelicals as the mission field of choice.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 07:16:00 AM. Permalink |

The media don't report what didn't happen . . .
And that's useful to know about reporting about Iraq:

Indeed, many of the achievements can be measured in the postwar potential catastrophes that were prevented. There has been no refugee crisis. There has been no humanitarian crisis. Starvation has not occurred. And a health crisis has not developed.

Just as you are never likely to read in your daily newspaper a headline declaring "No Murders in U.S. Capital Over the Weekend," it is the nature of journalism not to report on a calamity that hasn't occurred.

by Donald Sensing, 6/26/2003 07:12:00 AM. Permalink |

If Iran regime changes . . .
Only good will come of it, says David Warren A really outstanding essay, so RTWT! Hat tip: Jeff Jarvis.

by Donald Sensing, 6/25/2003 08:42:00 PM. Permalink |

Gas centifuge parts uncovered in Iraq
Uncovered, literally. News reports say that an Iraqi atomic scientist told the Americans he had been ordered to bury gas-centrifuge parts in his back yard. He did. Now we have them. The scientist also said he knew of three other scientists who had received similar orders, but he does not know where those men are.

Gas centifuges are used to produce Highly Enriched Uranium, used in atomic bombs.

by Donald Sensing, 6/25/2003 06:06:00 PM. Permalink |

Muslims killing Muslims
A "struggle for the soul of Islam"? Not quite.

Most Violent Islamic Fundamentalists (VIFs, as I call them sometimes) hate the West and America with passion, but if no American is nearby to kill, a nearby non-VIF Muslim will do. Muslim-on-Muslim violence is barely being reported in the US, so this article is revealing.

But in Pakistan, many Islamic radicals hold equal (and sometimes more) animosity toward dissenting Muslims (particularly Shiites) than toward westerners. The Sipah-i-Sahaba have even killed many of their own Sunni clerics, because the clerics rejected their divisive agenda. Often, implementing a skewed understanding of Islamic sharia (religious law) -- and not hatred of the West -- is their prime motivation.

Commentators have written since Sept. 11, 2001 that there is a "struggle for the soul of Islam" going on among Muslims today. Like "fundamentalism," it is really an inapt phrasing. It presumes that there is some essential Islamic definition or essence that is presently hidden somehow, and that reactionary Muslims are struggling with moderates to redefine it.

Not really. The struggle, including violence, is of course real. Islam does not exists apart from its adherents, any more than Christianity exists apart from Christians. I have previously written that Islam is what Muslims do, as essay in which I carelessly mentioned the "soul" of "real" Islam. ("Soul" is a Western-Christian metaphor, not an Islamic one, and "real" Islam assumes that there is an ideal form of Islam that exists independently of Muslims. Clearly, this cannot be so. I recant.)

What it really being contended is not merely whose practice of Islam will dominate, religiously speaking, but who will rule politically as the result. (Again, it is we who bifurcate religion and politics, Islam has not for most of its history.) However, this American Muslim does write about the "soul of Islam" and insists that "the Muslim world" has already lost true Muslim authenticity:

First, we have to recognize that Islam in America is probably closer to the true teachings of the Prophet Muhammad, may he be blessed, than at any other time in the last five hundred years. No, I'm not saying that Muslims are better believers today. I'm saying that the access to pure Islamic teachings and the ability to live them to their fullest moral and social potential is more pronounced here, in North America, than in Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria or anywhere else. The Muslim world: forget about it. It's too bogged down in stupidity, corruption, nationalism, racism and every other kind of ailment you can imagine. The light of Islam has been put out in the Muslim world and has been reborn in the heart of the secular, faithless West. (Allah is truly great!)

There is nothing you or I can do to improve the Muslim world. Nothing. Just accept it and get over it. . . .

This is a pretty entertaining essay, especially in the analysis of the three main groups of Muslims in America, but I can't vouch for the accuracy of the writer's exposition.

It is not really accurate to speak of "fundamentalist" Muslims. Fundamentalism is a term that originated in American Christianity about 90 years ago. American Christian fundamentalism sprung from sets of theological writings centered out of Princeton Theological Seminary. A reaction to theological liberalism and scientific modernity, the movement took its name from its attempts to identify the fundamentals of Christianity, meaning the faith claims and affirmations without which Christianity would lose its essential identity.

However, Muslims generally object that "fundamentalist" is an inappropriate term when speaking of Islamic movements. According to Mr. Macksood Aftab, managing editor of The Islamic Herald, to apply the term "fundamentalist" to Muslims is "neither fair nor valid":

Because in the case of Islam all Muslims believe in absolute inerrancy of the Quran, since it is a basic Islamic tenet. Therefore the media would have to use the word fundamentalist for all Muslims! which it does not do. It only uses the word Fundamentalist for both the extremist and terrorist groups, and the true moderate Islamic revivalist movements. Both these definitions are incompatible with each other.

Mr. Aftab also points out that there are numerous Islamic revival/renewal movements, and only a small minority are violent. While I understand his objections to using "fundamentalist" to describe only certain Muslims and not others, it is the best we can do for now. So I will keep using it, always attempting to distinguish between the violent and non-violent.

by Donald Sensing, 6/25/2003 04:48:00 PM. Permalink |

Buggy whip makers threaten to sue auto owners
That came to my mind when I read that,

The chief lobby group of the nation's major recording labels today said it would file hundreds of lawsuits against Internet users who illegally trade copyrighted music files.

I am not defending copyright infringement, but these kinds of stories indicate to me that the RIAA is neither very commercially nor technologically savvy. A news report I heard this week said that there are four billion files swapped every month. I'm guessing that a few hundred lawsuits won't stem the tide.

What they should do is figure how to ride the wave rather than turn back the tide. That's what Apple is doing with its iTunes service.

The revolutionary iTunes Music Store puts 200,000 songs at your fingertips. It’s built right into iTunes 4 and lets you search or browse genres, new releases, exclusives and more. Preview any song for free. When you find a song you want, buy it for just 99¢.

Now you may ask, "Why pay a buck per tune at iTunes when you can download tunes free from Kazaa?" - or another P2P service?

One reason is that iTunes lets you preview a tune before you d/l it, so you don't waste time trying downloading a tune of which you are uncertain of the name, but will recognize the music. Another reason is that P2P services are rife with incomplete files in which the song cuts off in the middle. A third reason is that with iTunes, what you download is what you get. Some P2P users are known to take their porn files and give them the names of in-demand music, just for kicks.

Apple expects the cost per song to fall, perhaps as much as by half, in the reasonably near future. Unfortunately, iTunes is available now only for Mac users, so Apple is guilty of business short-sightedness, too.

NPR did a very good segment on iTunes and online music-file downloading yesterday.

by Donald Sensing, 6/25/2003 04:01:00 PM. Permalink |

A very confused woman . . .
Via Glenn Reynolds, a blog entitled, "Goddess Blog," wherein the bloggess, Amy Alkon, "an award-winning, hilarious AND psychologically sound syndicated advice column[ist]" (according to her) describes herself as "bright," meaning,

somebody whose worldview is “naturalistic” -- “free of supernatural and mystical elements.” In other words, I do not believe in Santa Claus or the tooth fairy, nor do I believe “on faith” that there’s some big guy in the sky who’s about to squash me under his big thumb for crossing against the light.

Funny, I don't believe that either. I guess the standard of "brightness" is pretty low.

So here we have a woman who claims to be free of all that religion stuff, but who calls herself a "goddess." Okaaay . . . . 'Scuse me while I just laugh my head off. But this woman really, really hates religion and holds in contempt anyone whose religion doesn't agree with hers - which is everyone religious, of course, because no one will worship at the temple of Amy as much or as well as Amy will.

The worst god of all is Ego.

by Donald Sensing, 6/25/2003 03:06:00 PM. Permalink |

Ann Coulter now outselling Hillary Clinton
I frankly did not believe this NewsMax.com story that Ann Coulter's new book,
Treason, due for release June 24, had already dethroned Living History on Amazon for sales popularity.

I am not a fan of Ann Coulter's stuff and have not bought any of her books (well, haven't bought Hillary's, either), but it turns out NewsMax's claim is true, at least as of this posting. Amazon ranks Living History at no. 9 in their sales, and Treason at no. 8.

Meanwhile news reports today said that Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (or as my kids call it, "HP5") has sold five million copies on release day in the US alone, netting author J.K. Rowling more than $22 million, at the standard royalty rate of 15 percent of the retail (not discount) sales price. Needless to say, that sales figure is the highest ever for a book in one day.

The same report said that Living History has sold 700,000 copies thus far - a figure most any author and publisher would be ecstatic about. And for all I know, Hillary and Simon and Schuster are thrilled. S&S; said it paid Hillary an $8 million advance. Using the same royalty formula as for HP5, there must be another 1,205,000 copies of Living History sold for S&S; to break even on the advance.

Speaking of HP5, my two teenage sons helped a bookstore prepare for the Midnight Madness last Friday and were awarded with free copies of the Potter book. Son One brought home an intact shipping box, that I thought was interesting:



He's thinking of selling it on eBay. But if anyone wants to make an offer, email me and I'll let him know. You can see a high-resolution shot here.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 11:13:00 PM. Permalink |

This is a good question
Rachel Lucas wonders why the Left calls the Republicans "Nazis" when this guy is a much more appropriate holder of that epithet.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 10:17:00 PM. Permalink |

Gosh, this is refreshing . . .
And is yet another reason why you should read Dean Esmay's blog with high regularity.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 10:07:00 PM. Permalink |

Americans for Gun Safety - you know, the "moderates"
An article in today's Tennessean says of the gun-control group Americans for Gun Safety:

The Americans for Gun Safety Foundation positions itself in the middle of the United States' long-running debate over guns. While it promotes strong support for the right to bear arms, it advocates equally strong enforcement of the gun laws on the books.

Well, here is AGS' Home Page, and they frankly don't seem very moderate to me, especially since they repeat the lie about the non-existent "gun show loophole." ! don't see any evidence at all that AGS "promotes strong support for the right to bear arms."

But their web site claims they are moderate, so that's good enough for a writer at the Tennessean, I guess. I am less than surprised.

Dave Kopel has some other facts about AGS. Also, the Pennsylvania State Police debunks AGS's claim that state-run background checks of gun purchasers are poor; the state police calls AGS's research "shoddy."

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 08:15:00 PM. Permalink |

Jammed weapons and Jessica Lynch's unit
Armed Liberal has a post over at Winds of Change that refers to allegations that the reason the rifles used by the soldiers in Pfc. Jessica Lynch's unit all jammed in their ambush was because they had used the Army-issue lubricant, CLP.

CLP stands for Cleaner, Protectant, Lubricant; it is a liquid designed to break down carbon buildup in weapons that firing them deposits and also lubricate the weapon for future use. In the past, one solution was used for cleaning, another for lubricating.

The post cites persons who claim that CLP attracts the talcum-like dust of the Iraqi desert like a magnet, which is probably true. But in a long comment to the post, I explained there are other issues, and dumping all the blame on the CLP dodges the tough issues at hand.

Namely leadership and training.

If the soldiers' weapons jammed because of desert dust, I'd almost be willing to bet my next paycheck it was because they had not cleaned them in a long time, maybe days.

That's not a CLP problem, it's a leadership and training problem. As used to tell my troops, years ago, "You don't need your weapon until you need it real bad." It's a old cliche, but true nonetheless.

Surf on over and see what you think.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 07:29:00 PM. Permalink |

Decapitate the Iranian ayatollahs?
A reader emailed me to ask,

With respect to Iran, it appears that all we really need to do is get rid of a relatively small number of mullahs and Iran will fall to some sort of democratic style of government, especially with the uprisings currently underway. But aren't those mullahs rather public people compared to say, Saddam with his doubles and ever changing locales? Couldn't we hit them with one cruise missile and effectively change the government overnight? Sure, we'd take some flack for this "unprovoked" attack, but if we got most of the mullahs with one shot wouldn't the uprising succeed without further intervention on our part?

We are not at war in law or in fact with Iran. Before the Iraq campaign began, we had been at war with Iraq in fact since 1991, and in law since last October, when the Congress declared war against Iraq. (President Clinton, though, stoutly maintained throughout his presidency that the congressional war authorization of 1991 never ended, and attacked Iraq several times using the 1991 resolution as authoritative.) And there is no casus belli with Iran, either now or in the offing that would lead to congressional authorization for military strikes, however limited, against the country. Absent such authorization,

Furthermore, and just as important, the people of Iran seem presently pro-American (I would emphasize the word, "seem.") We should support them in more than symbolic ways. But the best way to turn them against us would be to strike militarily at their country in the manner suggested.

Jeff Jarvis has done a lot of blogging about Iran, potential courses of action, and especially keeping touch with Iranian bloggers (there are more than a few). This pretty much sums it up:

. . . the theme of every Iranian weblog I have read and it can all be summarized in three little words: Do not invade. . . . In Iran, we are clearly better off if democracy is a domestic product and if we are able to provide appropriate support.

I think that Iranian pro-Americanism is at bottom really more anti-ayatollahism than actual pro-Americanism. Proclaiming admiration for America is a good way of letting the ayatollahs know how much they hate them. Remember, it was Ayatollah Khomeini who made a career, practically, out of calling America the Great Satan. Khomeini's successors have hardly softened the rhetoric.

There is also much more of a targeting problem than my correspondent seems to think. The chances of all the key leaders being in one place at the same time, plus the likelihood we would know about it far enough in advance to program a cruise missile or three, plus the likelihood that they leaders would stay put long enough to be hit - all add up to a very remote chance, IMO.

Not only that, the sudden evaporation of national control would not necessarily be a good thing. There is no group actually prepared to take the reins of government, at least not yet. And not all anti-cleric groups are pro-democracy, and not all get along with one another.

So chaos in Iran would serve no one's interests, including our own. When the ayatollahs are toppled, it is critical for America's interests that Iran's weapons stay under control and not come into the possession of terrorists. In addition to potential WMDs (say, atomic material for a dirty bomb), terrorists would be thrilled to get hold of explosives and modern arms such as shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, or get more of them.

I have written before that Britain is critical to dealing with Iran. Not long ago Steven Den Beste emailed me the link to a Telegraph article that says so, too. The Brits have better, deeper contacts in Iran than we do.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 02:32:00 PM. Permalink |

US is forming new Iraqi army
The American administration in Iraq has announced it is forming a new, small Iraqi army, with the first division expected to be operational within a year. Recruitment will begin very soon but initially at least the soldiers will be former Iraqi army troops.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 10:25:00 AM. Permalink |

Why the media get it wrong
Britt Hume explains and pulls no punches. hat tip: CPO Sparkey.

by Donald Sensing, 6/23/2003 08:20:00 AM. Permalink |

Once more -
I have posted a significantly expanded version of my paper, The Soil of Arab Terrorism, in .pdf format. It's pretty much finished now, at 17 pages. It is a long version of the presentation I will make June 24 to the Middle Tennessee chapter of the Military Officers Association of America.

I welcome your comments!

by Donald Sensing, 6/22/2003 05:03:00 PM. Permalink |

No Oil for Blood!
That's the latest protest slogan, regarding the failure of France to support freedom for the Iranians. I like it!

by Donald Sensing, 6/22/2003 04:59:00 PM. Permalink |

Yes, this ad really is amazing
This TV ad by Honda is an astonishing bit of Rube Goldbergery. It took 606 filming attempts before everything worked on the same take. No computer-effects were used; it all really happened just as it appears to.

by Donald Sensing, 6/21/2003 06:00:00 PM. Permalink |

Harry Potter book a bust! Sales plummet overnight!
According to my sources in the industry, Scholastic Books, publisher of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, is gripped this morning in a near panic as the overnight sales figures of the book come in to its offices.

Major retailers such as Barnes and Noble also are in a funk. The reason?

Sales of the breathlessly-anticipated fifth Potter novel started strong when stores put them out for sale at midnight, but dropped sharply within just a couple of hours.

"This is a disaster!" exclaimed Ms. Imelda Czechs, treasurer of Borders Books. "We really expected the book to take off like a rocket, but it only started strong. By 5 a.m. almost no books were being sold anywhere, except to obsessive-neurotic internet surfers who clicked onto Amazon.com."

Customers leaving the stores agreed that the book was in trouble, sales-wise. "I got here at 11:30 p.m. last night," said Stan Beyerman, a rising country music star in Nashville, "and the place was packed. But by four this morning, when I had finished my second six-pack of Coors, there weren't nobody left but me. I reckon that word of mouth that the book was no durn good got around right quick."

"One of the main problems was the initial marketing strategy, which was not announced until late," said Donatello Nobatti, director of operations for Davis-Kidd, Inc. "All the midnight parties didn't get near the advance coverage we wanted. There were millions and millions of potential customers who stayed away. I guess they wanted to sleep or something."

Store managers said they had prepared for a near-killing crush of all-night shoppers, but were surprised at how quickly the crowds dissipated.

"We had extreme security measures in place for crowd control and pilferage prevention," said Barnes and Noble's security director, Ewen Whadarmie. "But we didn't need it."

"Sales in the British Isles were somewhat brisker," said Isaiah Oldboie, Scholastic's British chief of operations, "possibly because it was daylight here when the book went on sale. We are cautiously forecasting declining sales by 9 p.m. tonight, though."

Atlanta, Ga., alone experienced high sales volume until the wee hours of the morning, according to Ingram Book Co.'s Atlanta director, Frank Lee Scarlett.

"Sales were strong until 3 a.m., which is encouraging," he said. "But they weren't strong enough for stores to reopen tonight. It looks like the sales wave has crested and it's all downhill from here."

by Donald Sensing, 6/21/2003 11:20:00 AM. Permalink |

The Soil of Arab Terrorism
I have posted as a .pdf file a long version of the presentation I will make June 24 to the Middle Tennessee chapter of the Military Officers Association of America, titled as above.

I welcome your comments!

by Donald Sensing, 6/20/2003 04:44:00 PM. Permalink |

The Army's over-commitments
There is no quick fix to the Army's deployment burdens.

Lots of writing has appeared in recent weeks about whether the Army is stretched too thin. Now Ralph Peters weighs in:

We are going to be in Iraq for a long time. It's a worthwhile mission, on many counts, but it won't be a short one or a small one. And long after Rumsfeld's K-Mart commissars have moved on to cushy private-sector jobs, Sgt. Jones, faced with his fourth unaccompanied tour in Baghdad and his second divorce, is going to call it quits.

We are grinding down our volunteer military through constant deployments. Thus far, most of those missions have been worthwhile. But there simply are limits to what we can ask of a small force tasked with massive commitments.

Our service members are more than willing to do what is essential for our security, no matter the danger. But they, too, have a right to decent lives and the occasional chance to see their families.

General Edward C. Meyer, Army chief of staff in the early 1980s, pointed out, "The Army enlists soldiers but reenlists spouses." He meant that unless wives (and nowadays, husbands) of the troops are happy with their spouse's chosen career, the career won't last long. And Meyer was the chief well before the percentage of married soldiers rocketed upward. Last I checked, almost 60 percent of the Army's enlisted members are married. The percentage of married officers is very high, more than 80 percent as I recall.

Obviously, it is the lower ranking enlisted troops and officers who tend to be single. Mid-grade and higher NCOs and officers have a much higher married percentage. This is the chink in the argument that Trent Telenko makes about restoring the draft as a way of furnishing a constabulary in Iraq. Says Trent:

If we must deploy large numbers of American occupation troops anyway, which can't be our existing, expensive and limited ground combat specialists who are needed for further operations, we must create a new force structure as cheaply as possible -- AKA draftees -- to provide the staying power we need for long-term nation building.

That may be fine for junior enlisted troops (privates through specialists, E1-E4) whom we could send on a two-year tour to Iraq, after which they would come home and be discharged. But the critical ranks are the staff sergeants and higher. They can't be drafted, they have to be grown from below. And, as Peters points out, they will leave the Army in droves if they foresee nothing but deployments and family separations for years to come. So will mid-grade officers.

This is a serious problem. The main key to the success of American forces has been the seasoned professionalism of its troops, especially the NCOs. I wrote in more detail about this aspect here. We won't have competent privates without thoroughly professional NCOs, and we won't have the NCOs without personnel stability and high reenlistment rates. "Shake and bake" schools, as they were called in the Vietnam War, can churn out large numbers of NCOs with little time in service, but they can't teach maturity or experience. Those come only with the passage of time and a variety of experiences.

The only way to alleviate the problem is to grow the force structure in whole units, reducing the amount ratio of deployment time to at-home time each unit has. This doesn't mean that we should add combat divisions. We need more support units, especially military police, civil affairs and engineers. These can't be grown quickly with an all-volunteer system, it's true. But we need to start quickly. Otherwise our combat troops will wind up doing catch-all jobs for which they are nor trained or equipped, and the next time we need them to fight the results could be bad.

Related posts:

I said at the end of a post before the Iraq campaign started that "the peace to follow will probably be a mess." If the situation in Iraq seems messy, Phil Carter explains why: we war-gamed the war, but not the peace.

However, the American administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, writes today that progress is being made, there is a plan, and much work is yet to be done.

Meanwhile, "Two top U.S. defense officials signaled Congress yesterday that U.S. forces might remain in Iraq for as long as a decade and that permanent facilities need to be built to house them there."

by Donald Sensing, 6/20/2003 01:49:00 PM. Permalink |

Wired.com picks up on Orrrin Hatch's piracy
Wired.com has picked up the story about Sen. Orrin Hatch's web site using unlicensed software, first discovered by blogger Laurence Simon. Wired adds comments by the copyright holder, and they are not kind to the senator.

The spat started over these comments by Hatch.

by Donald Sensing, 6/20/2003 11:19:00 AM. Permalink |

The UK Lottery Scam
I have now received two emails that begin:

WINNING NOTICE FOR CATEGORY B WINNER: KP6821873DL
It is our pleasure to inform you that you have emerged as a Category "B" winner of the UK International Lotto. CONGRATULATIONS! You are entitled to a prize sum of US$2,500,000.00. . . .

This is just as authentic as the Nigerian oil minister's widow's email, of course. The genuine UK lottery is warning people that it is a scam.

Of course, all lotteries are scams.

by Donald Sensing, 6/20/2003 10:49:00 AM. Permalink |

About Pfc. Lynch's memory
According to the recent WaPo account of Pfc. Jessica Lynch's ordeal in battle and captivity, she remembers practically nothing about the battle or subsequent events.

U.S. military sources say she is unable -- or unwilling -- to say much about anything that happened to her between the morning her Army unit was ambushed and when she became fully conscious sometime later at Saddam Hussein General Hospital in Nasiriyah, Iraq.

As you may remember, initial accounts of Lynch's actions said that she had fought like an Amazon, shooting all her ammo and killing a number of Iraqi soldiers, being wounded herself. How could anyone not remember that?

Now it turns out that her injuries - very severe ones - resulted from a "catastrophic" collision of her Humvee into a wrecked truck after the Humvee was struck by an RPG.

A U.S. tractor-trailer with a flatbed swerved around an Iraqi dump truck and jackknifed. As Dowdy's speeding Humvee approached the overturned tractor-trailer, it was hit on the driver's side by a rocket-propelled grenade. The driver, [Pfc. Lori] Piestewa, lost control of the Humvee, swerved right and struck the trailer.

The senior defense official described the collision as "catastrophic."

[Master Sgt. Robert J.] Dowdy, sitting in the passenger seat, was killed instantly. So, probably, were the two soldiers on either side of Lynch. Piestewa and Lynch were seriously injured, according to the senior officer's account.

Now her loss of memory seems entirely credible to me. In March 1998 I was injured in a near-catastrophic collision of my own:



I was driving my 1995 VW Jetta to class. It was raining and I took a shortcut down a farm road. I did not know that the road had been somehow impregnated with agricultural chemicals that rain made about as slick as Teflon. (This is what a county deputy sheriff told me later.) I rounded a gentle curve at 30 mph. The car fishtailed violently. I reverse steered energetically to no avail. In two eyeblinks it was obvious that I was in the arms of Isaac Newton. I remember saying, "Well, I'm really screwed now."

That's the last thing I remember between that moment and between 15-20 minutes later when I opened my eyes and saw the bent-double dashboard and heard an ambulance crew trying to get inside the car.

My injuries were not as severe as Lynch's - my left arm was shattered, my legs were crushed and the left side of my head was cut up by flying glass, but that's all. A surgeon repaired my arm with steel and screws, my head repaired itself (some would argue not!) and my legs recovered after about 18 months. I took physical therapy for some weeks afterward.

The road, btw, continued to claim other victims, including one of my professors, whose van was totaled but she was uninjured. Three years later I went to assist at another wreck at almost the identical place mine had been in my capacity as a volunteer sheriff's dept. chaplain. A Volvo has spun out in the rain, being driven by the adult daughter of a county official. She was uninjured, but her 16-year-old brother, sitting unbuckled in the right-front seat, was covered in blood from head to knees. Two other, younger siblings in the back seat suffered internal injuries. None died, but two of them were badly hurt.

Within two months the county tore the road up down to the dirt and rebuilt it. Amazing that several years of regular wrecks along that stretch, including some fatalities, drew no official attention, but one wreck by a county official's family got action.

by Donald Sensing, 6/20/2003 10:06:00 AM. Permalink |

Sorry about no posting today
I have been buried in work, including finishing the draft of my upcoming presentation on terrorism to the Middle Tennessee chapter of the Military Officers Association of America, which will be this Tuesday. And I have an appointment to leave for in a moment. If I post anything it will be late tonight.

Thank you for reading!

by Donald Sensing, 6/19/2003 05:32:00 PM. Permalink |

Baghdad Bob joins Winds of Change!
Gasp! Infamous Iraqi prevaricator Baghdad Bob is now a team member of Joe Katzman's formerly respectable team blog, Winds of Change! Joe, say it ain't so!

by Donald Sensing, 6/18/2003 02:31:00 PM. Permalink |