I see no evidence that bin Laden has ever had any plan except violence itself, committing it where he could, when he could. He commits violence against Western targets with no vision apparent beyond the violence. He has no idea of how to constitute a true nation state. He is a man whose vision extends no further than more fighting, which is to say, he has no vision at all.

Current U.S. military doctrine addresses the strategic, operational and tactical levels of war, but it emphasizes the strategic level. It is a top-down formalistic approach to war; whereas, the Al Qaeda approach is informal, bottom-up, evolutionary, and constantly adapting to changing conditions. ... it can easily shift from assassinations to weapons of mass destruction to hit and run raids to car bombs.

We have to convince several audiences of [our] moral correctness [in ousting Saddam] and make them empathetic to our success. That fight is being waged right now in Iraq in a race against time to see who can convince the Iraqis of the rightness of our actions to liberate all Iraqis from tyranny.

Americans once feared to retaliate against random bombings; terrorists now wonder when we will stop - as the logic of September 11 methodically advances to its ultimate conclusion. Aroused democracies reply murderously to enemy assaults in a manner absolutely inconceivable to their naïve attackers.

In regard to rumors about a large-scale attack against the U.S. during the month of Ramadan, [top al Qaeda commander Abu Salma] Al-Hijazi said that "a huge and very courageous strike" will take place and that the number of infidels expected to be killed in this attack, according to primary estimates, exceeds 100,000. He added that he "anticipates, but will not swear, that the attack will happen during Ramadan."

He further stated that the attack will be carried out in a way that will "amaze the world and turn Al Qaida into [an organization that] horrifies the world until the law of Allah is implemented, actually implemented, and not just in words, on His land... You wait and see that the balance of power between Al Qaida and its rivals will change, all of a sudden, Allah willing."

The US is making progress against them on too many fronts - military, economic, ideological, logistical, political - for al Qaeda to count on the stability needed to plan for long-ranger operations. Bases, personnel, resources and government support needed to conduct effective attacks against high-value targets just can't be forecast very far ahead. They face a much higher uncertainty about who might have been "turned" by the US to work against them.

They have lost too much major talent either to death or capture. Their first team is pretty much off the field and the benchers trying to carry on aren't up to the job. They don't have the personal renown of the terrorists who have been killed or captured, and among the societies they most need assistance from, personal reputation is extremely important. But they are virtual unknowns for the most part.

Al Qaeda is still dangerous, but the danger of a spectacular attack by them is much lower than ever.

I would have thought that a man of God like Donald would have spotted it: bin Laden's strategy was to get God, or Allah, involved in the war against the infidel.

But it's perhaps not so strange that Donald didn't see it; he's a man of God, but he was a career military officer before becoming a minister, and he's a rationalist and a son of the Christian Enlightenment. Our enemy's thinking is just as foreign for Donald as it is for me as an Atheist. ...

All of the suicide attacks over the last thirty years are viewed that way, to a greater or lesser extent. When they're referred to as "martyrs", that's not entirely propaganda and rhetoric. Those who sacrifice themselves to kill Islam's enemies are seen by the zealots as performing acts of faith, acts of devotion, acts of genuine worship. In doing so they atone for their own sins, and for the sins and moral corruption of their people. The goal is not so much to directly defeat their enemies through these attacks as it is to show their worthiness to once again be given God's direct help in the Crusade. And so it is that while some sacrifice themselves in attacks against the Jews and Americans, others pray to God to destroy those same Jews and Americans. That is how they expect to win. ...

And that's why al Qaeda's plans seem idiotic to rationalists like Donald and me. bin Laden could not create and follow the kind of plan which we'd think was essential. If bin Laden's plan had been based entirely on temporal power and cogent strategy and real resources, and if such a plan did not rely on miracles, it would have demonstrated lack of faith. If there were no place in the plan for God, it would prove that bin Laden didn't truly believe God would help.

And it would therefore prove that bin Laden didn't deserve any help from God, because it would prove that his faith wasn't really pure. For bin Laden to create such a plan would be a heretical act. ...

The only way to truly prove your faith is to rely on miracles, and that's what I think they're doing. I think that was bin Laden's strategy. [emphases original]

We westerners may really believe that the campaign is simply military or political or even judicial, but in Islam, all of these arenas are subordinated to religious doctrine; indeed they really are part of the warp and woof of Islam itself. Islam does not distinguish, even in theory, between religion and state as the West does. They have no "handle" on which to hang the claim that there is no religious component of western response to the terrorist acts of Sept. 11. ...

The primary motivation of the Taliban, bin Laden and Al Qaeda springs from their extreme religious fundamentalism. This has been pointed out by numerous Arab/Muslim commentators for years. They see western culture as such an extreme threat that they are willing to commit suicide to turn it back.

I am not speaking of what we think of when we talk about "western culture." We cite things like trashy movies, vacuous television, fascination with celebrity, addiction to leisure and entertainment, materialism, consumerism, political corruption, and other various ills of our society. While such things are religiously repulsive to Al Qaeda's strain of Islamic fundamentalism, they are not their chief objection.

The threat that the West (the USA being the foremost western nation) presents to the Taliban and their religious ilk is the West's world view, scientific epistemology. They perceive our scientific-technological world view as an overwhelming threat not merely to their way of life, but as an actual affront to Allah, and indeed, reality itself.

Their world view is, briefly and simplistically this: there is no new knowledge about Reality to be discovered after the life of Mohammed and outside the text of the Koran. (1) In this view, the universe is a closed book. ...

Islamists see scientific epistemology not only as heretical, but something that actually threatens reality itself. In their mind, they are literally saving the world when they fly airliners into skyscrapers. ...

Thus, this struggle is not principally a clash between political systems. It is a clash of incompatible world views and irreconcilable ways of understanding the nature of reality itself. ...

There is no concession that the United States can offer to pacify them. There is no foreign policy change we can make that will satisfy them. Those things are not the things that have caused them to raise the sword. It is quite literally impossible for the West to placate them, because we cannot culturally internalize their fundamental way of understanding reality.