One Hand Clapping

The fall of the House of Saud
A piece today in the National Post postulates that the House of Saud, collective dictators of Saudi Arabia, may be headed for a fall.

As the West applies greater scrutiny to Saudi Arabia, it is becoming clear that the Saudi royal family's grip on their country may be weakening. Per capita GDP has fallen by two-thirds in recent decades, and the country's debt is enormous. The Saudi royal family itself is expanding geometrically, with each new Prince entitled to a slew of profligate government handouts and cut-ins on foreign contracts. And while the recent departure of U.S. troops will no doubt please radical Islamists, the continued popularity of Osama bin Laden -- a Saudi exile and regime enemy -- shows religious and political disaffection is rife.

In the pre-9/11 days, the thought of the West's oil caretakers being thrown from power would have caused shrieks of alarm in Western capitals. And even now, it seems possible that whatever local cabal might wrest power from the House of Saud would simply provide its subjects with a different, and perhaps more unstable, flavour of bigotry and dictatorship. But plainly, it is time for the West to start thinking soberly about what will follow when the House of Saud collapses under the weight of its own corruption. That eventuality no longer qualifies as something Western governments should only dread, but also as a chance to bring much needed change to a hateful regime.

I posted a brief synopsis in August of the many problems presenting the House of Saud, and presented by them. And earlier this month I detailed how Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda believe that the people of the kingdom will eventually become so sick and tired of the royals’ oppressions of them, and the royals’ unfaithfulness to true Islam, that they will revolt, bring down the House, and inaugurate a true Islamic society. (See index of related posts here.)

I think the Post is right - that the royal family of Saud shall continue as sole rulers of the kingdom should be seen as open to doubt over the long term (less than 10 years, perhaps much less). The question, of course, is what shall replace it.

The Wahhabist clerics would no doubt love to do what bin Laden wants, establish a Taliban-style society there, cleansed of Western influences if not Western presence. But we have to wonder whether the Saudi Arabian people would tolerate swapping one oppressive regime for another. The instability of Saudi Arabia’s rule is an unspoken but serious reason the success of democratizing Iraq remains critical: as the French used to say, l’encouragement d’autres.

by Donald Sensing, 9/21/2003 06:00:01 PM. Permalink |

Blogroll:

News sites:

Opinions, Current Events and References

Useful Sites:

Shooting Sports

DVD bestsellers

Military History and Politics:

Religion bestsellers: