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Wednesday, September 24, 2003


Al Qaeda plot to down El Al airliner foiled
So reports Haaretz Daily.

Police in Thailand three months ago arrested a man suspected of planning an attack on an El Al plane or against Israeli travelers in the country. Channel Two television, which broke news of the arrest Tuesday night, said the man is a suspected member of Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaida terror organization. The suspect's nationality and identity remain undisclosed.

The suspect was arrested when Thai police spotted him photographing an El Al counter at Bangkok International Airport, Channel Two said. Investigators found in the suspect's residence relatively detailed plans for a terror attack. Apparently, his plan was to either destroy an El Al plane with an anti-aircraft missile, or to attack passengers in the airport with gunfire or explosives.
Recent reports are that al Qaeda's operatives are no longer conducting detailed and lengthy planning for attacks. Instead, they are seeking to hit relatively soft targets that don't require a high level of tactical planning and resourcing. If the report is true, and I believe it is, it is almost certainly for two reasons:

  • The US is making progress against them on too many fronts - military, economic, ideological, logistical, political - for al Qaeda to count on the stability needed to plan for long-ranger operations. Bases, personnel, resources and government support needed to conduct effective attacks against high-value targets just can't be forecast very far ahead. They face a much higher uncertainty about who might have been "turned" by the US to work against them.

  • They have lost too much major talent either to death or capture (like this guy, for example). Their first team is pretty much off the field and the benchers trying to carry on aren't up to the job. They don't have the personal renown of the terrorists who have been killed or captured, and among the societies they most need assistance from, personal reputation is extremely important. But they are virtual unknowns for the most part.

    Al Qaeda is still dangerous, but the danger of a spectacular attack by them is much lower than ever. As Austin Bay has explained, we are winning.

    by Donald Sensing, 9/24/2003 07:09:00 AM. Permalink |  





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